Last December, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist militant group, launched a sudden offensive that sent shockwaves through the region. One by one, major cities began to fall—first Aleppo, then Hama, and soon Homs—as the rebels pushed their way closer to Damascus, Syria’s capital. President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which had survived well over a decade of civil war thanks to the likes of Iranian and Russian backing, found itself increasingly unable to deter the rebels’ advances; Iran was tangled up in its own proxy battles with Israel, while Russia was stretched thin with its war in Ukraine. In other words, Assad was on his own. The rebels, it seemed, understood this, and so they seized their chance. Damascus fell in a matter of days, and Assad fled to Moscow.